Radical Rationalist

The fate of the GOP now rests securely in President Obama's hands.

With Al Franken finally being certified as the winner in Minnesota’s 2008 senatorial race, we have suddenly arrived at the first test of my theory concerning Nate Silver’s Republican Death Spiral.  Franken’s arrival gives the Democrats a 60-seat majority in the Senate.  No one should get terribly excited about this, both for the reasons outlined in virtually every major news outlet as well as the fact that 60 shouldn’t be the big number we make it.  Virtually all of Obama’s agenda now depends on how well he can hold together his party’s much-expanded coalition.

A Tipping Point

In my initial post on this topic, one of the major determinants was how quickly internal bickering began to actually cause a rift in the Democratic Party.  With steady, competent leadership, the Democrats may hold their coalition together long enough for the Republicans to bleed out.  However, if the bickering becomes damaging very quickly, and voters believe the party to be ineffectual, those who recently left the Republican Party may run back.  If the Democratic coalition holds out longer, the Republicans may have hemorrhaged too many voters to recover.  If, for instance, the Libertarian Party manages to gain parity with their Republican cousins, then that party, and not the GOP could be the beneficiary of a Democratic split. Continue reading…